麥克阿瑟軍聞社 (General MacArthur Military Journal): 5月 2014

2014年5月31日星期六

澳洲將更多參與亞太地區防務？

澳洲將更多參於亞太地區防務？

作者︰Dasein

[PIC 1]

近年﹐越來越多的澳洲媒體開始注視中國的軍事發展﹐長期與世無爭的澳洲人開始懷疑他們是否應該更積極回應解放軍的活動和發展。澳洲著名網上新聞媒體news.com.au就曾以「A new arms race is exploding into Asia, with an expensive and extensive shopping list of new weapons. Who’s buying what — and where does Australia stand?」為題撰文比較亞太軍備情況[1]﹐他們亦曾引用澳洲策略政策研究院的報告直指「中國是澳洲最大的威脅（Australia’s biggest threat is China）」[2]。

澳洲和盟國

澳洲在二戰時已經和美、英等國家維持極親密的關係﹐澳洲不單只在亞洲內和日軍作戰﹐他們更有參與過北非和歐洲的作戰。

戰後﹐澳洲作為民主、英語和英聯邦國家﹐它一直和美國、英國等北約成員國保持相當的交流。由於周邊地區相對和平﹐澳軍在本國附近的工作很多時是關於海洋安全、人道救援等非作戰任務及維和作戰。

澳洲的威脅

正如前文所言﹐澳洲周邊地區相對和平﹐只有印尼、東帝汶（Timor-Leste）和澳洲有領土糾紛﹐而且雙方動作不大﹐很多時問題都可以用協議和溝通來解決[3]。

對澳洲來說比較大的威脅是恐怖分子和海盜問題。海盜問題困擾全球的富有海洋國家﹐澳洲當然沒辨法獨善其身。至於恐怖分子問題﹐由於澳洲親近英、美﹐加上鄰國不乏回教徒（筆者不是指回教徒就是怖恐分子﹐但針對英、美的恐怖分子的確以回教徒為主）﹐澳洲難免會擔心問題漫延到自家裡。可幸的是﹐澳洲就紀錄而言除了有拳王袋鼠軍團外（笑）仍是非常安全。

至於中、澳間的恩仇﹐如果不談奶粉爭奪戰的話﹐主要是在韓戰和越戰中在不同的陣營中交鋒﹐反正都是陳年舊事。

澳洲的軍力

既然澳洲本來就十分安全﹐它的軍備自然就不多。它三軍的武裝基本上都是北約制式﹐而且武力質、量都只屬一般。例如﹐派里級在美國海軍只屬二線戰艦﹐但在澳洲皇家海軍內就基本上是主力之一。

[PIC 2]

澳洲未來增購的軍備

1) F-35A

澳洲一直有參與美國主導的F-35戰機研發計劃﹐它是計劃的三級伙伴﹐它並為計劃投資1億4千4百萬美元。未來﹐澳洲計劃採購3個中隊﹐共72 架F-35A [4][5]。澳洲選用和美國一樣的F-35﹐不但在硬件上追近美軍﹐更賣了美國一個人情﹐因為F-35研發成本太高﹐美國要發展必須有賴盟友的參與。

2) 坎培拉級直升機登陸艦

澳洲開發的坎培拉級直升機登陸艦已經接近完成﹐它排水量達2萬7千噸﹐共建2首。2萬7千噸以登陸艦來說只算中庸﹐但它的設計可算是別樹一格。它雖然是「直升機登陸艦」﹐卻有滑跳式跑道﹐因此它可以部署短場起降戰機。事實上﹐澳洲的確在考慮增購F-35B用在坎培拉級直升機登陸艦上[6]。如果此事成真﹐到時坎培拉級直升機登陸艦就是少數可滑跳戰機同時進行兩棲登陸作戰的艦隻。

[PIC 3]

據網上數據﹐坎培拉級直升機登陸艦最多可內載18架直升機﹐甲板可另外容下6架。如果以一個直升機位算成一個戰機位﹐坎培拉級直升機登陸艦最多可支援24架戰機作業。如此一來﹐澳洲的F-35數量就有可能增加至120架。

目前澳洲空中武力主要是95架F-18戰機﹐其中71架是比較舊的A、B型。就算71架舊戰機按計劃到2020年除役﹐因為有更新銳的F-35以一比一更新機隊﹐澳洲未來空中實力的增幅還是相當可觀。

3) 潛艇

澳洲目前正在執行名為SEA 1000的計劃﹐計劃以獲得新式大型柴油潛艇為目標﹐以淘汰澳洲舊式的柯林斯級潛艇。為此﹐澳洲一直有和日本接觸﹐希望可以獲得日本的蒼龍級潛艇﹐日本本來就計劃建造9首蒼龍級﹐而澳洲本身就希望要12首。筆者認為兩國合作機會相當大﹐因為除了日本柴油潛艇外﹐國際市場上根本沒有其他大型柴油潛艇。

客觀而言﹐兩國都有相當多的合作因素。首先﹐兩國同是美國主要盟國。其次﹐兩國有其同潛在戰略目標。三﹐兩國沒有重大利益衝突。四﹐兩國勢力範圍不同。

澳、日關係

在澳洲主要的軍備計劃中﹐不難看出澳、日走近的可能性。在潛艇計劃﹐澳洲似乎會對日本技術有興趣。另一方面﹐澳洲造出了中、小型多功能的坎培拉級直升機登陸艦﹐而且它確定有航母功能﹐日本又會否有興趣參考一下？（22DDH有沒有操作F-35B能力實際上是各說各話﹐因為22DDH甲板的防熱能力、受壓力只有日本知道。）

另一方面看﹐澳洲在這個中、日交鋒的時勢﹐當著中國的面洽談日本要武器﹐計劃成功的話就直接推低日本潛艇單價﹐在硬件上和日本合作﹐這究竟是一個甚麼樣的表態？親日﹐反中？我看都是。

澳洲和日本有潛力承擔美國在遠東的工作

美國的實力在下降﹐中國的實力在上升﹐這是不爭的事實。美國國防支出估GDP已經由高位4.7%走到4.2%（2012）。相對地﹐日本（1%）和澳洲（1.7%）的國防支出仍有相當發展的空間 [7][8]。

事實上﹐解放軍支出約佔GDP2%﹐但考慮中國GDP準確度的問題﹐軍費比例有可能更高。無論如何﹐解放軍以現在軍費比例的支持下已經開始強大﹐東海、南海問題一一在國際會議被寫到議程上。奧巴馬的「Pivot to Asia」對解放軍有多大的阻嚇力？鄰國心中自知。

不論美國在亞洲實力是增加還是減少﹐在中國實力增加下﹐日本和澳洲勢必增加參與亞太防務﹐以爭奪國際的話語權。

退一步來說﹐如果澳洲沒有在遠東防務參一腳的意思﹐那樣它大花金錢來養兩首具航母和兩棲功能的大戰艦來做甚麼？

Picture Source:

[PIC 1]: Viewed 31^st May, 2014, http://cdn.defencetalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/australia-military.jpg

[PIC 2]: Viewed 31^st May, 2014, http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a0/HMAS_Darwin_F-04.jpg

[PIC 3]: Viewed 31^st May, 2014, http://www.navy.gov.au/sites/default/files/SHIP_LHD_Canberra_Class_Concept_Cutaway.jpg

Reference:

[1]: news.com.au, Viewed 31^st May, 2014, http://www.news.com.au/technology/a-new-arms-race-is-exploding-into-asia-with-an-expensive-and-extensive-shopping-list-of-new-weapons-whos-buying-what-and-where-does-australia-stand/story-e6frfrnr-1226825644654

[2]: news.com.au, Viewed 31^st May, 2014, http://www.news.com.au/national/australias-biggest-threat-is-china-australian-strategic-policy-institute-report-finds/story-fncynjr2-1226824729488

[3]: Viewed 31^st May, 2014, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2070.html

[4]: Viewed 31^st May, 2014, https://airforce.gov.au/Technology/Future-Acquisitions/F-35A-Lightning-II/?RAAF-ZRnYQhJUh1u0e44uR32olOT1rt+Ym4K3

[5]: Viewed 31^st May, 2014, http://thediplomat.com/2014/05/australias-big-f-35-commitment/

[6]: Viewed 31^st May, 2014, http://www.janes.com/article/38374/australia-could-buy-f-35b

[7]: Viewed 31^st May, 2014, http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/BudgetReview201314/DefenceExpenditure

[8]: Viewed 31^st May, 2014, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS

Will Australia participate more in Asia Pacific?

Author: Dasein

[PIC 1]

Recently, Australian medias are focusing on the military development of China. News.com.au has published an article entitled “A new arms race is exploding into Asia, with an expensive and extensive shopping list of new weapons. Who’s buying what — and where does Australia stand?”, it has done some analysis of recent military competitions[1]. In their other article, they based on the report of Australian Strategic Policy Institute and stated “Australia’s biggest threat is China”[2].

Australia and Allies

Australia is one of the closest friends of the US and the UK. In the WW2, Australia has joined the war not only in Asia but also in North Africa and Europe.

After WW2, Australia has stayed friend with NATO members. Australia has been armed in minimal level because Australia is located in a relatively peaceful region.

Threats of Australia

Although Australia has territorial disputes with Indonesia and Timor-Leste, the disputes can usually be settled by agreements and communications. [3]

In fact, piracy and terrorism imposed major security risk to Australia. Piracy is one of the common issues for developed maritime states, therefore piracy is one of the major targets of Australian arm forces. Australia is also under threats of terrorism because she is the ally of the U.S.

Arm Forces of Australia

Although there is number of threats to Australia, Australia is a relatively safe country. Therefore she is not heavily armed. Basically, Australia arms are NATO standard, and usually their arms are not qualitatively nor quantitatively superior. For example, Oliver Hazard Perry class frigate is a second class warship in the USN, but its derivatives Adelaide class is forming the backbone of Royal Australian Navy fleet.

[PIC 2]

The Future Weapons of Australia

1) F-35A

Australia is the level 3 partner in F-35 development programme, one of the most eyes-catching fighter jet programme led by the US. Australia has invested 144 million USD and she will purchase 72 F-35As in the future [4][5].

2) Canberra-class landing helicopter dock

Australia has developed 27000 tons Canberra-class landing helicopter dock, the Royal Australian Navy will have 2 ships in the coming years. 27000 tons is not very big for this kind of ships, but this class is special. Canberra-class has ski-jump ramp for STOVL jet fighters, although it can carry LCM-1E for landing mission. In fact, Australia is considering purchasing F-35B for these ships [6].

[PIC 3]

Canberra-class landing helicopter dock can carry at most 18 helicopters in the hangar, and 6 additional helicopters in the flight deck. Then, we can deduce that Canberra-class landing helicopter dock could carry 24 F-35B if necessary. If Australia equips her naval air fleet to maximum capacity, Australia could purchase up to 120 F-35 jet fighters in total.

Currently, Australia rely on 95 F-18 jets to defence the sky, 71 of the F-18s are old A or B variants. Australia will have a strong F-35 replacements for the air fleet even if the old F-18s will retire before 2020. It is no doubt that the air power of Australia is raising.

3) Submarines

Royal Australia Navy is now working on SEA 1000, which is a project aiming at new blue ocean diesel submarines. Australia is in touch with Japan for her Soryu class submarine. Japan has planned to build 9 Soryu class submarines, and Australia is going to build 12 new diesel submarines. I believe that Australia has a high chance to work with Japan, because Japanese submarines is basically the only options for blue ocean diesel submarines project.

Objectively speaking, Australia and Japan have many incentives to work together. First, they are major allies of the US. Second, they are fighting against the same potential target. Third, they do not have major conflict of interest. Forth, they are regional power in different area.

Japan-Australia Relationship

It is not difficult to see the possibility that Australia and Japan work together in future military project. In SEA1000, Australia may purchase Soryu class. On the other hand, Canberra-class landing helicopter dock can be a good reference for the Japan to build F-35B operation ready ship. (It is not sure if 22DDH can operate F-35B, because F-35B is very heavy and the flight deck have to be strongly heat resistance for vertical take-off or landing.)

In the other point of view, why does Australia try to work with Japan while Sino-Japan relationship is not good recently? If Australia works with Japan in military industry, China will certainly be unhappy. Australia may help Japan reducing military expenditure by using the same product. It is a political stand, if Soryu class swims in Australian water.

Australia and Japan could replace some US present in the Asia Pacific

The power of America is diminishing, and China is raising. The defence budget / GDP ratio of the US has dropped to 4.2% (2012) from 4.7%. At the same time, Japan (1%) and Australia (1.7%) can invest more for regional peace [7][8].

No matter the PLA budget is true (Defence Budget / GDP Ratio: 2%) or not, China is challenging the US and her allies in East and South China Sea. Although president Obama said “Pivot to Asia”, it seems that the US is not doing a great job in rebalancing Asia.

In the future, it is almost a must for Japan and Australia to participate more in Asia Pacific, unless China has been a close friend of NATO.

Took a step back, if Australia is not planning to work more in Asia Pacific, why would she purchase 2 big ships with aircraft carrier and amphibious function?