麥克阿瑟軍聞社 (General MacArthur Military Journal): 11月 2013

中國利劍無人機分析

The Glocal: http://www.glocal.org.hk/articles/31112
My Facebook Page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/%E9%BA%A5%E5%85%8B%E9%98%BF%E7%91%9F%E8%BB%8D%E8%81%9E%E7%A4%BE/1374752162749515

作者︰Dasein

二零一三年十一月二十一日一時左右﹐中國大陸在四川成都某機場成功測評了新銳的匿蹤無人機。[1][2]據網上資料顯示﹐中國內地繼美、英、法後成為少數擁有匿蹤無人機技術並成功試飛的國家。近來中國無人機在遠東地區大為活躍﹐中國在九月就曾派出無人機前往沖繩附近海域﹐引發日本不滿（詳請可以參閱作者另一篇文章）﹐因此英國BBC駐北京記者Martin Patience就有如此分析︰「令所有人憂慮的是小小的差池將有可能引發更大的事態。」明顯地﹐大陸的軍事發展將令鄰國擔心地區戰力上的不平衡。

(Picture 1a,b: 利劍)

世界匿蹤戰鬥無人機（Stealth UCAV）

國家和型號	美國X47B[3]	英國Taranis[5]	法國Dassault nEUROn[6]	中國內地利劍[7]
高	3.1m	4m	?	?
長	11.63m	11.35m	9.5m	?
闊	18.92m	9.1m	12.5m	14m
淨重	6350kg	?	4900kg	5488kg（估計）
最大起飛重	20215kg	8000kg（重）	7000kg（共重）	7499kg（估計）
推力	79kN（軍用推力）[4]	29.4kN	40kN	98kN(RD93)[8], 43.15kN(WP7)[9]
推重比	3.9 - 12.44	3.675	5.7-8.16	13.07 – 17.86 (RD93), 5.75 – 7.86 (WP7)

（資料由網上搜集﹐作者製表）

(Picture 2: X47B)

(Picture 3: Taranis)

(Picture 4: Dassault nEUROn)

氣動外形

大陸的利劍無人機似乎比以往更積極地追求匿蹤效果。和J20匿蹤戰機的中庸設計哲學不同﹐J20選擇安裝前翼﹐放棄一部份匿蹤能力來換取機動性。而利劍無人機則選擇和西方一樣的純匿蹤導向設計。

究竟是甚麼令中方偏離以往「7分匿蹤﹐3分氣動」的設計方針呢？也許是大陸對匿蹤機設計仍在探索階段﹐因此哪個導向的設計都要試試。也許是大陸對匿蹤技術的信心増大了﹐再也不打算要維持一定氣動優勢來買保險！又可能是戰機和無人機的需求不同﹐所以設計才不一樣。無論是哪個原因﹐內地無人機發展將會成為各國軍情單位注視的熱點。

據中方的說法﹐利劍的任務是針對敵的區域防空系統。面對區域防空系統一般來說只會考慮距外武器（Stand-off Weapons）或低空突撃。按UAV的使用常理來說利劍應該是以投射距外武器任務為主﹐但中方在距外武器的研究一向不甚突出﹐令人不禁懷疑利劍會否有射距外武器以外的任務。

一般來說﹐UAV並不適合低空飛行﹐因為地型會影響UAV和基地的聯繁訊號（當然仍可用衛星通訊）。但眾所周知中方的潛在對手均和中國相隔一海﹐理論上UAV應該可以在海上低空飛行而沒有通訊問題﹐因此這樣的地理環境給予利劍參與低空任務的可能性。

參數

參考維基百科﹐利劍和美國的X-47B有著接近的飛行距離（4000公里）和載酬（約2000公斤）。雖然本人對X47B的參數有所保留﹐但明顯地利劍最少已經在參數上走在科技的尖端。

另外由推重比來看﹐如果利劍採用俄國的RD-93發動機﹐那作者估計的推重比有點高得不太正常。作者的意思不是自認估算有錯﹐我是認為中國和西方對無人機使用哲學有所不同。在戰史中﹐西方傾向以距外武器技術性撃倒對邊防空系統﹐因此無人機並不預期會被敵陸基防空系統纏上（本來要雷達發現匿蹤機就有困難）。因為不需要大量推力餘裕﹐推動比自然足夠就好了。但中方的距外攻撃力被認為比潛在敵人的防空武力差﹐所以中國就有可能用低空穿透來攻擊敵防空系統。如此進取的方法當然為無人機帶來危險﹐特別是來自野戰防空體系的紅外線導引飛彈的攻撃。這樣﹐中方就有理由為無人機追求高推重比﹐以求更高的生存性。

服役時間

一般飛機由原型機出現到量產、形成戰力（Initial Operation Capability）﹐大概需要10年左右的時間。10年這樣長的時間主要是花在流體力學的評測、減重、可靠性評測、武器系統評測。如果飛機是打算在航母上作業﹐那樣對飛機結構、抗鹽蝕將需要另作測試。

對於無人機而言﹐也許對飛安的測試可以寬鬆一點﹐但對機載系統和資料鏈系統的要求必然比有人機更多。因為無人機極依賴電子系統的穩定性來維持操作﹐如果電子系統被別國鑽了空子﹐飛機就有可能落入他國手中。到時損失飛機機體價值是小﹐損失技術才是大問題。

因此﹐如果大陸要避免RQ170事件在利劍身上出現﹐他們也許會付出和有人機相當的研究時間以求萬無一失。

地區的影響

無可否認的是﹐不講是韓、日、台都沒有和利劍相似的匿蹤無人機﹐她們亦沒有像利劍一樣的「察打一體」能力。利劍的出現在基礎上減少了中方開戰的代價﹐這樣將令中國的鄰國更加不安。因此﹐未來的軍備競賽不但會加劇﹐而且鄰國亦會增購攻撃性武器﹐以増加中方開戰的人命成本﹐這樣多多少少又會在日本修憲和台灣軍購上產生影響。

利劍的初期任務

作者估計中方遲早會把利劍混編一般無人機逼近一些特殊區域（如金門）。中方有可能先人用利劍進入金門的防空體系之下﹐由一般無人機遠距觀察﹐測試台軍對利劍的偵測距離。後期可能會讓一般無人機在高空、利劍在低空穿過台海中線﹐這可測試台軍空軍對低空利劍的偵測能力﹐也可以測試美軍新型ASEA雷達（此雷達亦裝備在台灣F-16上）對中國匿蹤機的偵測效果。

長遠而言﹐利劍亦可能像九月時一樣挑戰日本自衛隊的海空偵測系統。

結語︰

面對利劍的威脅﹐在未來十年間中國的鄰國或會籌建不同波段的雷達系統﹐以技術層面在天空「防漏」。

Picture Source:

[Pic 1a]: http://images.takungpao.com/2013/0523/20130523082505294.jpg, 24^th Nov, 2013

[Pic 1b]: http://img1.cache.netease.com/cnews/2013/5/30/2013053016264798b33.jpg, Viewed 24^th Nov, 2013

[Pic 2]: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/64/A_U.S._Navy_X-47B_Unmanned_Combat_Air_System_makes_an_arrested_landing_aboard_the_aircraft_carrier_USS_George_H.W._Bush_%28CVN_77%29_as_the_ship_conducts_flight_operations_in_the_Atlantic_Ocean_off_the_coast_of_Vir_130710-N-LE576-002.jpg, Viewed 24^th Nov, 2013

[Pic 3]: http://www.ainonline.com/sites/default/files/uploads/DefPers_Taranis.jpg, Viewed 24^th Nov, 2013

[Pic 4]: http://www.defencegreece.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/neuron_taxy.jpg, Viewed 24h Nov, 2013

Reference:

[1]:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-25033155, Viewed 24^th Nov, 2013

[2]:http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%88%A9%E5%89%91%E6%97%A0%E4%BA%BA%E4%BD%9C%E6%88%98%E9%A3%9E%E6%9C%BA, Viewed 24^th Nov, 2013

[3]:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northrop_Grumman_X-47B, Viewed 24^th Nov, 2013

[4]:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pratt_%26_Whitney_F100, Viewed 24^th Nov, 2013

[5]:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BAE_Systems_Taranis, Viewed 24^th Nov, 2013

[6]:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dassault_nEUROn, Viewed 24^th Nov, 2013

[7]:http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ain-defense-perspective/2013-11-22/china-flies-first-unmanned-combat-air-vehicle, Viewed 24^th Nov, 2013

[8]:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klimov_RD-33, Viewed 24^th Nov, 2013

[9]:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese_aircraft_engines, Viewed 24^th Nov, 2013

[10]:http://big5.chinabroadcast.cn/gate/big5/gb.cri.cn/42071/2013/11/22/7291s4332193.htm, Viewed 24^th Nov, 2013

New Chinese Stealth UCAV – Sharp Sword

The Glocal: http://www.glocal.org.hk/articles/31112
My Facebook Page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/%E9%BA%A5%E5%85%8B%E9%98%BF%E7%91%9F%E8%BB%8D%E8%81%9E%E7%A4%BE/1374752162749515

Author: Dasein

In 21^st Nov, 2013, a new Chinese stealth unmanned combat air vehicle (UCAV) named Sharp Sword (Chinese: Lijian) was successfully gone through a test fight in Chengdu, China. [1][2] China has been the fourth country that having stealth UCAV in the world. The success of the new Chinese stealth UCAV test flight reminds us that China sent her UAV to the nearby sea of Okinawa in the last September. Martin Patience (reporter of BBC) said "The fear for everybody here is that some small misstep could actually trigger a bigger incident".

(Picture 1a,b: Lijian)

Stealth UCAV

Country and Model	US X47B[3]	UK Taranis[5]	France Dassault nEUROn[6]	China Lijian[7]
Height	3.1m	4m	?	?
Length	11.63m	11.35m	9.5m	?
Width	18.92m	9.1m	12.5m	14m
Net Weight	6350kg	?	4900kg	5488kg（Approx.）
Max Takeoff Weight	20215kg	8000kg（Weight）	7000kg（Gross Weight）	7499kg（Approx.）
Thrust	79kN（Military Thrust）[4]	29.4kN	40kN	98kN(RD93)[8], 43.15kN(WP7)[9]
Thrust-to-weight Ratio	3.9 - 12.44	3.675	5.7-8.16	13.07 – 17.86 (RD93), 5.75 – 7.86 (WP7)

(Information: Internet, Table: Author)

(Picture 2: X47B)

(Picture 3: Taranis)

(Picture 4: Dassault nEUROn)

Shape

Lijian has been aggressively designed for stealthiness. In the past, Chinese military stealth plane designs were seeking the balance of stealthiness and maneuverability (for example: J20). However, we can tell that China is now aggressively seeking for stealthiness in Lijian, just like X-47B.

It is important for us to ask why China is changing their stealth plane design from balance to high stealthiness. I believe this has been a new topic for intelligence service worldwide.

Besides, China has admitted that Lijian will be used to destroy enemy’s area defense system. Nowadays, there are only two common ways fighting against area defense system effectively and efficiently, stand-off weapons and low altitude raid. UAV is generally used to fire stand-off weapons in this case but China is not good at producing stand-off weapons. I believe that Lijian may need to take part in low altitude raid in China’s war plan.

It is important for us to remember that UAV is no good to be guided in low altitude because of land barriers. However, UAV can still work perfectly in low altitude above the sea.

Therefore, China is possible to use Lijian in most of the potential battle fields in the east of China.

Parameters

With reference to wikipedia, Lijian and X-47B is sharing similar range (approx. 4000km) and payload (approx. 2000kg). It is no doubt that Lijian is now on the edge of modern aerospace technology.

If we assume Lijian is using russian engine RD-93, the thrust-to-weight ratio is unusually high for Lijian. I believe that the exceptionaly high thrust-to-weigth ratio of Lijian is because Lijian is designed for low altitude raid. For western UCAV, they were designed to fire stand-off weapons, therefore it is no point to make their UCAVs super good to run away from enemy missiles. However, in low altitude raid, Lijian could be shot by low level air defense system. The high thrust-to-weight ratio could save Lijian’s “Life” from surface-to-air missiles (SAM), infra-red guided missiles in particular.

When will Lijian join the force?

In general, it takes 10 years for a prototype plane ready for mass production and initial operation capability.

For UAV, they will take extra years for computer reliability and security test. Otherwise, RQ-170 incidence could happen to any other countries again.

Regional Effect

Today, China is the only country that having stealth UCAV in the region. It is no doubt that Taiwan, Japan and South Korea are worrying for Lijian, because Lijian reduces the price for starting a war. In the foreseeable future, Lijian will lead to regional military competition, also countries in the Far East will purchase more assault weapons in order to threat against China. In a long run, Lijian will bond with Japan constitutional reform and Taiwan weapon purchase.

The possible first mission for Lijian

It is possible for China to send Lijian to sensitive region to test its stealthiness. China will try to fly Lijian above other countries’ land radar system, sea radar system and fighter planes radar. I believe that China could be interested to know if Taiwanese new ASEA radar (US new radar system) can detect Lijian from different distances.

Also, I believe China could send Lijian to Senkaku islands in the future, just like last September.

My Prediction

In order to defense Lijian, radar systems with different EM frequencies could be introduced in the Far East countries.