由地區和平看東海防空識別區

由地區和平看東海防空識別區

The Glocal: The Glocal
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作者︰Dasein

                中國內地在十一月二十三日單方面宣佈東海防空識別區﹐台、日、韓、美立即對中方成立東海防空識別區表示不滿。原則上﹐中方成立東海防空識別區就是以國防為理由﹐要所有企圖進入該區的飛機先向中方表明身份。日、韓、美為了在實際上否定東海防空識別區的意義﹐她們都曾派出軍機在無通知中方的情況下進入東海防空識別區內。而台灣亦表明東海防空識別區對她們「不友善」。

（Pic 1︰東海防空識別區與日本防空識別區）

 

（Pic 2︰東海油田）

               

             東海防空識別區在國際間最大的爭議在於它包括了釣魚台（中日爭議地區）、蘇岩礁（中韓爭議地區）和東海油田區域。由於上述三個海域都有主權爭議﹐而台灣北部又幾乎被東海防空識別區包圍﹐所以台、日、美、韓均對中方的行為有相當的反感。

                平心而論﹐中方和其他國家一樣有權成立自已的防空識別區﹐事實上美、日均比中國早四十多年成立防空識別區。而防空識別區的成立本來就是基於國防需要而非法律﹐並無硬性標準﹐更非領空領海問題﹐本應難以非議。那為何各國反應如此緊張呢？那是因為中國無考慮地區軍事平衡問題！

                參照歷史﹐維持國與國之間的和平無非依賴三個因素︰互信、軍事平衡和互相毀滅保證。美國和加拿大的和諧關係就是以互信來達至和平的例子﹐由於美國和加拿大有相似的文化基礎﹐亦有相似的民主程度和價值觀﹐所以美、加一直維持相當友好的關係。走在東亞地區﹐中國和日、韓、台不但有各自的歷史問題、利益和歷史包袱外﹐還有相當程度的政治價值觀不同。因此﹐就實際上來看東亞並沒有太大的基礎互信來維持和平。

 

軍事平衡

                就算沒有太大的互信﹐只要有軍事平衡和一定的經濟互動﹐就可以形成一個「戰是弊多於利」的事實﹐一定程度防止戰爭。馬來西亞和新加坡就是以軍事平衡來達至和平的例子。這樣一個維持和平的方法有一個明顯的特徵﹐那就是易於發生軍備競賽。由於我們必須令對方感到「戰是弊多於利」﹐所以必須有一定的軍事威脅實力。當馬來西亞由波蘭買了PT-91戰車﹐新加波就買了豹-2戰車回應﹐可見她們之間存在微妙的平衡關係。

                明顯地﹐中方和日、韓、台的關係不存在軍事平衡。台灣受制於<<中美三個聯個公報>>而長期缺乏有效的武器更新。事實上﹐中方早已不把台海中線放入眼內﹐而一般軍事家亦會認為台灣和中國開戰將在短時間內失去制海權和制空權。對於日本﹐受制於<<和平憲法>>﹐日本自衛隊欠缺有效的攻擊性武器﹐失對於主動防禦的能力﹐另一方面她純防禦的海、空優力量優勢已經被中方追近。因此﹐日本十分依重<<美日安保條約>>作為安全保證。對於韓國﹐她的攻擊力量為日、台、韓之首﹐可惜美國對韓攻擊性武器有相當的限制﹐而且和中方相比數量差太大﹐難以在攻擊力上和中國平衡。

                如果將日、韓、台視為一體﹐也許東亞仍可算有軍事平衡﹐但日、韓、台仍各有各的心結（獨島、釣魚台問題）而未能同心制衡中國﹐因此她們實力是有不足﹐目前很大程度依賴美國在亞太的軍兵協防。

 

互相毀滅保證

                互相毀滅保證是指雙方均有核戰力來完全地互相毀滅對方。經典的例子是冷戰﹐這是美、蘇在常有利益分歧下沒有開大戰的原因。基本上﹐互相毀滅保證理論亦可以用來預測中、美關係﹐這亦是絕大部份評論認為中、美不可能開戰的原因。

                在東亞的情況來看﹐基本上美、日、台均在美方的核保護傘下﹐只要美國對東亞立場不變﹐想必互相毀滅保證仍會是東亞安全最重大的保證。

 

中方成立東海防空識別區的問題

                雖然有美國的核保護傘保護﹐但作為東海當事國家﹐她們當然希望自己的安全不會只建基於美方的善意之上。事實上﹐台、日、韓亦相當主動建設防禦武力。但是時移勢易﹐中國的軍力不但不是吳下阿蒙而是已經走在世上前列的國家了。因此﹐日、韓均有必要依賴自己的防空識別區以維持戰爭前期的基本優勢。

                中國實力日增﹐卻選擇把防空識別區拉到人家家門﹐在法理上也許沒有問題﹐在實力上考慮更是非常有邏輯﹐卻沒有考慮此舉增加了鄰國的不安。畢竟﹐防空識別區限制了空中防禦的縱深是事實﹐在敵盛已衰的大形勢下﹐對抗中國的東海防空識別區就成了日、韓必須的選擇﹐因為這是性命攸關的問題！

                其次﹐遠東在二戰後的不穩中方都有參與引起。韓戰是中國的盟友北韓先開打﹐後來中國亦有參戰；九六年台海危機亦是中方對台發射飛彈引發危機。反觀韓、日不但沒有主動攻擊中國的紀録﹐亦沒有攻擊的能力。因此﹐東亞各國就只有中國可以有效威脅別國的本土。

                再說﹐日、台對海路的需求比中國高很多。海路的安全是維持台、日的糧、油和出入口必要的條件。相反﹐中國有陸路可依﹐食物出產又多﹐相對不擔心東海的封鎖。

                總括來說﹐中方成立東海防空識別區或許合法﹐但不合時勢亦無助和平。把遠離本土的釣魚台和蘇岩礁納入東海防空識別區更有挑戰地區現狀的意思。如果有分析家要指「你日本有防空識別區﹐中國也可以有」﹐那日本、台灣、南韓又是否可以擁有中國亦擁有的核武？事實上﹐中國有了核武後本土就不見得有多少外在危險﹐因此「東海防空識別區是否國防需要？」﹐我想讀者可以有自己的判斷。

                我們必須明白﹐在國際上軍事現實需要比公義重要。美國不可能放棄巴拿馬運河、美國不可能容下古巴有蘇聯的飛彈、以色列不可能放棄戈蘭高地。這些都是國家性命攸關的問題﹐生命比法理的光環重要！

 

Picture Source:

[Pic 1]: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/dam/assets/131125121509-china-sea-air-defense-map-story-top.jpg

[Pic 2]: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/04/East_China_sea_digging_map.svg/459px-East_China_sea_digging_map.svg.png

 

 

ADIZ of East China Sea

 

ADIZ of East China Sea

The Glocal: The Glocal
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Author: Dasein

            China has announced their ADIZ for East China Sea on 23^rd Nov, 2013. The US, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have given immediate responses to fight against China’s propose.  Taiwan government said the new ADIZ was not “friendly” to them. Also, the US, Japan and SK intentionally sent their military planes thought the new ADIZ without noticing China.

(Pic 1: East China Sea ADIZ and JAFIZ)

(Pic 2: East China Sea Oil fields)

            In the East China Sea ADIZ, it has included Senkaku Islands, East China Sea oil fields and Socotra Rock. Also, the south part of the ADIZ has covered the north part of Taiwan ADIZ, therefore, Taiwan, Japan, the US and SK were not happy for the new ADIZ.

            It is no doubt that China has the right to set up her own ADIZ, like Japan, Canada and the US. However, China did not take military balance into account, therefore the ADIZ will be bad for ensuring regional peace.  

            In the modern history, we may conclude that there are 3 factors for peace: mutual trust, military balance and Mutual Assured Destruction. It would be hard for the Far East to come up with mutual trust with China because of the difference points of view in democracy, culture and history. Now, we may go through the other 2 factors.

 

Military Balance

            It is possible for us to achieve regional peace if we have military balance and mutual economic benefit. Malaysia and Singapore is one of the examples of military balance. In the situation of military balance, military competition would occur easily. When Malaysia seeked for PT-91 from Poland, then Singapore purchased leopard 2 as a balance weight.

            In the Far East, it would be hard for us to say the region is in military balance. The military power of Taiwan is limited by The Three Communiqué. The Japanese military assault power is limited by her peace constitution. SK’s assault power is limited by the US. Therefore, the sum of assault power of these 3 countries are relatively low and the balance does not exist. It is no way to make China pay the price if China start a war with Japan, SK or Taiwan, if we do not take the US into account.

Mutual Assured Destruction 

            Mutual Assured Destruction means that both parties can kill another will nuclear weapons for sure. Cold War would be a great example to demonstrate how Mutual Assured Destruction can make peace. In theory, China and the US is sharing the same situation as the Cold War.

            If we assume the US will help Japan, SK and Taiwan from China’s threat with her nuclear weapons, we can say the Mutual Assured Destruction exist. However, the regional peace is heavily depends on the stand of the US.

 

The problems of the East China Sea ADIZ

           

            Although Japan, SK and Taiwan can enjoy their safe from the protection of the US, they are all seeking for their own defensive power. However, China is no longer a poor and weak country. In fact, the military power of the China has already been stronger than Japan, SK or Taiwan.

            It could be totally legal for China to set an ADIZ on the large part of the East China Sea, but it could be a bad option for ensuring the regional peace. After all, China is now relatively powerful than any other neighbourhoods in the region, therefore her neighbourhoods have to fight against the new ADIZ to take initial advantages in the war.

            Also, China and her ally North Korea always fire first. In the Korea War, NK started the war and China has taken a part of it. In 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis, China has fired missiles to Taiwan as well. However, SK and Japan do not have any firing-first history with China after WW2. They do not have enough assault weapons as well. We can see only China can threat the motherland of others while her neighbourhoods can only stay in defensive position.

                Furthermore, Japan and Taiwan heavily depend on the sea trade. They have to import foods from foreign countries and trade. However, it would be a different story in China. China can support foods for herself and trade by land.

                To sum up, the East China Sea ADIZ could be legal, but not helpful for the regional peace. It is hard to believe Senkaku Islands and Socotra Rock, which are far from mainland China, would be important for China’s air defense. It is obvious that China would like to change the current situation in the East Sea by introducing ADIZ. Some military analysts believed that China had right to introduce ADIZ in the East Sea because Japan has done so. If their theory was right, then is that means Japan can have nuclear weapon to make the game fair?

            We have to understand that military reality is more important than justice sometimes. The US will never give up Panama Canal, the US did not allow USSR missiles in Cuba, and Israel cannot give up Golan Height. It is not about justice, it is about survival!

 

Picture Source:

[Pic 1]: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/dam/assets/131125121509-china-sea-air-defense-map-story-top.jpg

[Pic 2]: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/04/East_China_sea_digging_map.svg/459px-East_China_sea_digging_map.svg.png