Author: Dasein
China has announced their ADIZ for
East China Sea on 23rd Nov, 2013. The US, Japan, South Korea and
Taiwan have given immediate responses to fight against China’s propose. Taiwan government said the new ADIZ was not
“friendly” to them. Also, the US, Japan and SK intentionally sent their
military planes thought the new ADIZ without noticing China.
(Pic 1: East China Sea ADIZ and JAFIZ)
(Pic 2: East China Sea Oil fields)
In
the East China Sea ADIZ, it has included Senkaku Islands, East China Sea oil
fields and Socotra Rock. Also, the south part of the ADIZ has
covered the north part of Taiwan ADIZ, therefore, Taiwan, Japan, the US and SK
were not happy for the new ADIZ.
It is no
doubt that China has the right to set up her own ADIZ, like Japan, Canada and
the US. However, China did not take military balance into account, therefore
the ADIZ will be bad for ensuring regional peace.
In
the modern history, we may conclude that there are 3 factors for peace: mutual
trust, military balance and Mutual Assured Destruction. It
would be hard for the Far East to come up with mutual trust with China because
of the difference points of view in democracy, culture and history. Now, we may
go through the other 2 factors.
Military Balance
It is possible for us to achieve
regional peace if we have military balance and mutual economic benefit.
Malaysia and Singapore is one of the examples of military balance. In the
situation of military balance, military competition would occur easily. When
Malaysia seeked for PT-91 from Poland, then Singapore purchased leopard 2 as a
balance weight.
In the Far East, it would be hard
for us to say the region is in military balance. The military power of Taiwan
is limited by The Three Communiqué.
The Japanese military assault power is limited by her peace constitution. SK’s
assault power is limited by the US. Therefore, the sum of assault power of
these 3 countries are relatively low and the balance does not exist. It is no
way to make China pay the price if China start a war with Japan, SK or Taiwan,
if we do not take the US into account.
Mutual
Assured Destruction
Mutual Assured Destruction means that
both parties can kill another will nuclear weapons for sure. Cold War would be
a great example to demonstrate how Mutual Assured Destruction can make peace.
In theory, China and the US is sharing the same situation as the Cold War.
If
we assume the US will help Japan, SK and Taiwan from China’s threat with her
nuclear weapons, we can say the Mutual Assured Destruction exist. However, the
regional peace is heavily depends on the stand of the US.
The problems of the East China
Sea ADIZ
Although Japan, SK and Taiwan can
enjoy their safe from the protection of the US, they are all seeking for their
own defensive power. However, China is no longer a poor and weak country. In
fact, the military power of the China has already been stronger than Japan, SK
or Taiwan.
It could be totally legal for China
to set an ADIZ on the large part of the East China Sea, but it could be a bad
option for ensuring the regional peace. After all, China is now relatively
powerful than any other neighbourhoods in the region, therefore her
neighbourhoods have to fight against the new ADIZ to take initial advantages in
the war.
Also, China and her ally
North Korea always fire first. In the Korea War, NK started the war and China
has taken a part of it. In 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis, China has fired missiles
to Taiwan as well. However, SK and Japan do not have any firing-first history
with China after WW2. They do not have enough assault weapons as well. We can
see only China can threat the motherland of others while her neighbourhoods can
only stay in defensive position.
Furthermore,
Japan and Taiwan heavily depend on the sea trade. They have to import foods
from foreign countries and trade. However, it would be a different story in
China. China can support foods for herself and trade by land.
To sum
up, the East China Sea ADIZ could be legal, but not helpful for the regional
peace. It is hard to believe Senkaku Islands and Socotra Rock,
which are far from mainland China, would be important for China’s air defense.
It is obvious that China would like to change the current situation in the East
Sea by introducing ADIZ. Some military analysts believed that China had right
to introduce ADIZ in the East Sea because Japan has done so. If
their theory was right, then is that means Japan can have nuclear weapon to
make the game fair?
We have
to understand that military reality is more important than justice sometimes.
The US will never give up Panama Canal, the US did not allow USSR missiles in
Cuba, and Israel cannot
give up Golan Height. It is not about justice, it is about
survival!
Picture
Source:
[Pic 1]:
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/dam/assets/131125121509-china-sea-air-defense-map-story-top.jpg
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