Occupy Central and Taiwan Military Sales

Occupy Central and Taiwan Military Sales

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Author: Dasein

                In 1989, Tiananmen massacre happened in Beijing, the mainland China was embargoed because the PLA was responsible for the death of the protestors in Tiananmen Square. Taiwan had the first opportunity in purchasing modern weapons after August 17 communiqué. For years of military development after 1989, Taiwan’s Air Force and Navy had been significantly strengthened by the U.S. and France modern weapons, such as F-16, Mirage 2000-5 and E-2T.

                In 2013, Hong Kong government claimed that we were developing our own universal suffrage. However, people in Hong Kong believed that we were going to have a Chinese-style universal suffrage only, instead of a fair and equal election. Therefore, Occupy Central, led by Prof. Benny Tai from Hong Kong University, planned to paralyses Central ( Financial and political hub of Hong Kong) in order to give pressure to Hong Kong government for a better universal suffrage plan in late 2014. Hopefully, Hong Kong will have real democracy.

 

    

 [Pic 1]

                However, not everyone in Hong Kong are optimistic about Occupy Central. Some people believe that Occupy Central will come with a bloody end. Tiananmen massacre may have a twins brothers in Central in 2014. Regardless of who will be in charge of handling Occupy Central (Hong Kong Police or PLA), no one can rule out the possibility of bloody end.

 

 

[Pic 2]

 

 

[Pic 3]

                If Hong Kong police or PLA turns Central into bloody red for clearing Occupy Central, China will be embargoed once again after 1989. If so, Taiwan will have opportunity to import better weapons again. In fact, Occupy Central induces volatility to regional political situation. Military sales to Taiwan has been less costly for every forward steps that Occupy Central moves because expected cost = P(embargo)Cost(embargo) + [1-P(embargo)]Cost( no embargo).

                Nowadays, Dassault Rafale fighter planes are now looking for a new customer so badly. The French government and Dassault would like to produce more Rafales in order to reduce its unit cost. In fact, Taiwan and France had a secret talk about exporting Rafale to Taiwan in 2008 [1]. Also, Taiwan has experience in using Dassault Mirage 2000-5, it makes Taiwan to be a good potential clients for Rafale.

[Pic 4]

                On the other hand, Pacific region is being more concerned by France [2], it would be logical for France exporting Rafale to Taiwan for more regional influence.

                It is not hard to deduce that Taiwan will be more attractive to Dassault if Occupy Central is turning from plan to reality. However, Dassault and France can only gain the highest profit if they make a deal with Taiwan before Occupy Central happens. Dassault will face a huge competition from the U.S, Europe and Sweden if they try to sell Rafale to Taiwan after the second China embargo. However, France will face political and financial pressure from China alone if she makes a wrong bet, such as peaceful end of Occupy Central. Therefore, France have to bet if Occupy Central will turn into a bloody end or not.

                However, Taiwan does not have a good experience in using Mirage 2000-5, it is expensive but hard to maintain. Rafale may not be the best option for Taiwan if Taiwan can select any fighter planes she wants. Also, France does not have a clean record in La Fayette Class sales to Taiwan. I do not think Rafale would be relatively more attractive than its counterparts (F-16, Gripen, EF-2000) when the second China embargo comes true. Therefore, making a deal before Occupy Central happens could be the only option for France if France want to export Rafale to Taiwan.

                Of course, my theory is not only work for France but any other countries. However, not every countries are so urgently looking for a new clients. Therefore, France could be the only gambler here. The political future of little Hong Kong could be one of the biggest casino in the world once again.

 

Picture Source:

[Pic 1]: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f4/Occupy_Central_Press_Con.jpg/300px-Occupy_Central_Press_Con.jpg

[Pic 2]: https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEdiHSMD6pDVz9Z2NfD534d05hFl6nx38NznKqgE6WIN_ljxJzjyI6zZnX_3F7EUct1SqmTlNUk-7xq4C4GdxQPl9hNMQXozkZWdhXX5ESDK6RHLX50UekX6X_NemBh_eMCUnYg2mdLeDE/s1600/tiananmen.jpg

[Pic 3]: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/zh-yue/0/07/250px-JUNE4-0P.jpg

[Pic 4]: http://defense-update.com/images_new/rafale.jpg

 

Reference:

[1]: http://www.stnn.cc:82/hk_taiwan/200802/t20080223_736393.html

 

[2]: Reissa Su, France President to Visit New Zealand for the First Time, PM John Key Seeks EU Free Trade Agreement, International Business Times, viewed 4^th Jan, 2014, http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/509089/20130926/new-zealand-france-hollande-south-pacific-g20.htm#.UsfPbZWIpjo