麥克阿瑟軍聞社 (General MacArthur Military Journal): Over Militarization and South Sea ADIZ

Over Militarization and South Sea ADIZ

Author: Dasein

“China’s safe zone is where we can have benefit [1]”, said by General Lau (劉亞洲上將). The statement has partially described how a nation should develop her own military power. After 30 years of rapid military development, China has become one of the most powerful nations in the Far East.

However, military development may not always make a nation more secure. Over militarization could induce instability to the region.

In some situations, military balance is more important than military needs. When a nations is over militarized, her neighbourhoods would have more concern about their own safety. For example, Singapore is enjoying better military power while Malaysia is enjoying a huge buffer zone. We can use buffer zone as a weight to balance military power, then the region can achieve military balance. However, if Malaysia develop her military based on her huge territories, then Malaysia would break the military balance and start military competition with Singapore. To conclude, we have to consider military balance in order to achieve regional peace.

Also, over militarization would induce aggressive emotion. In fact, military investment could be “breakeven” by using it or threatening using it. The U.S. would use her huge power over the world for nation safety and building reputation. It is economically irrational to not using military forces if one nation is over militarized. On the other hand, it would be dangerous for a nation to boost nationalism by over militarization, because aggressive military actions would eventually be the only option to proof their national pride.

Over militarized?

In order to tell if China is over militarized, we should understand that South Sea and East Sea are not only important to China but also important to many countries. In fact, China can provide almost all the energy she needs [2].

[Pic 1]

[Pic 2]

[Pic 3]

However, 96% of energy source of Japan is imported from foreign countries [3]. South Korea and Taiwan also import 90% of their energy needs [4][5].

[Pic 4]

Moreover, China has built oil pipe in South East Asia to reduce using South Sea for energy source transportation. Therefore, we can conclude South Sea and the Ease Sea are more important to Taiwan, South Korea and Japan than China.

On the other point of view, we can determine needs by the length of coastline. I think you may judge by your own what reasonable military level is for PLA Navy.

Countries	Length of Coastline[6](km)
Philippine	36,289
Japan	29,751
China	18,000
Vietnam	3,444
South Korea	2,413
Taiwan	1,566

If we use EEZ + territorial sea to determine military power, Japan would have a more military needs than China（4,479,358 km² vs 3,877,019 km²[7]）.

Military Power

	China				Row Sum	China	China Advan.
Fighter	933				933	933	0
AEW (Fixed Wing)	12				12	12	0
Ship	28(8)				28(8)	28(8)	0
Submarine	69				69	69	0
Carrier	1				1	1	0
E. Sea	Taiwan	Japan	S.K.
Fighter	325	353	298		976	933	-43
AEW (Fixed Wing)	6	17	4		27	12	-15
Ship	12(0)	24(6)	13(9)		49(15)	28(8)	-21(-7)
Submarine	2	16	14		32	69	37
Carrier	0	0	0		0	1	1
S. Sea	Vietnam	Singapore	Philippine	Malaysia
Fighter	36	98	0	36	170	933	763
AEW (Fixed Wing)	0	8	0	0	8	12	4
Ship	0(0)	6(0)	0(0)	2(0)	8(0)	28(8)	20(8)
Submarine	1	6	0	2	9	69	60
Carrier	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
	US% （Pacific Power）				Chin Adv.* (E. Sea)	Chin Adv.* (S. Sea)	Chin Adv.* (Total)
Fighter	N/A				-43	763	-213
AEW (Fixed Wing)	N/A				-15	4	-23
Ship	9(9)				-21(-7)	20(8)	-29(-7)
Submarine	3				37	60	28
Carrier	1				1	1	1

[8]-[24]

*Not considering the US

#Not counting old F-5﹐ J-7 and Mig-21

^Count for ships more than 1000 tons with area defence missiles or VLS only.（）means number of Aegis or Chinese Aegis.

% 7st Fleet, 5th Air Force and 7th Air Force

Comparison

In the East Sea, the super military power of PLA submarine fleet has outweigh the disadvantages of the Air Force and Navy. In the WWII and battle of battle of Falklands, the world had in depth understanding the power of submarines. Submarines can lock down island easily and bring enemy fleet into big troubles. It seems that PLA can not only protect their homeland but also lock down islands nearby.

In the South Sea, China has even more advantages. Therefore, it is no doubt that South Sea ADIZ will be a serious issue for countries located in the South Sea.

Also, China is the only Far East Countries having mature ballistic missile technology and nuclear technology. It is hard to believe PLA needs a huge traditional power to make them safe.

Nowadays, the existence of the U.S. forces has become a balance weight in the Far East. It is hard to imagine military balance in the Far East without American.

Disadvantages of Over Militarization

When a rapid military development is trying to slow down, it is reasonable to expect some of the engineers and technicians would be lay off. The fired former military industry workers would be approached by foreign intelligence services. Therefore, government usually do not want a rapid military development rate change.

Also, the over expended military would tend to show off their muscle. The government would be tempted to start war for funding huge military investments and boost nationalism.

ADIZ in South Sea and East Sea

After introducing ADIZ in the East Sea in 2013, China is now planning for a new ADIZ in the South Sea. People generally believe that Vietnam is targeted for this new policy. In fact, the PLA had a military exercise in the South Sea weeks before the leakage of South Sea ADIZ policy [25].

[Pic 5]

Kanwa Defense Review (no. 112) believe that the ADIZ policy in the East Sea is set for political reasons and catering over heated nationalism.

I agreed what Kanwa Defense Review said, however I think it is a must for China to show their power in ADIZ. Otherwise, introducing ADIZ is just not enough to achieve the political goals.

Unlike the East Sea, China can interference the South Sea easily by her powerful Air Force and Navy. China has a high chance to win even if Vietnam gives military responses. Therefore, the ADIZ in the South Sea is a safe gamble for China to show her present in the region.

Conclusion

China has rapidly develop her military power for decades. Also, China has introduced ADIZ in the East Sea recently. I believe there are some bonds connecting two issues. No matter what, a nation should develop her military power based on military needs and regional military balance but not political reasons. Otherwise, the nation will walk in the edge of war.

Picture Source:

[Pic 1]: Viewed 1st Feb, 2014, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:China-primary-energy-ej-2009v1.svg

[Pic 2]: Viewed 1st Feb, 2014, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:China_Gas_Production_vs_Consumption.png

[Pic 3]: Viewed 1st Feb, 2014, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:China_Oil_Production_vs_Consumption.png

[Pic 4]: Viewed 1st Feb, 2014, http://www.fepc.or.jp/english/energy_electricity/supply_situation/sw_index_01/index.html

[Pic 5]: Viewed 1st Feb, 2014, http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b0/South_China_Sea_claims.jpg

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