Will Australia participate more in Asia Pacific?
Author: Dasein
[PIC 1]
Recently,
Australian medias are focusing on the military development of China.
News.com.au has published an article entitled “A new arms race is exploding
into Asia, with an expensive and extensive shopping list of new weapons. Who’s
buying what — and where does Australia stand?”, it has done some analysis of
recent military competitions[1]. In their other article, they based on the
report of Australian Strategic Policy Institute and stated “Australia’s biggest
threat is China”[2].
Australia and
Allies
Australia
is one of the closest friends of the US and the UK. In the WW2, Australia has
joined the war not only in Asia but also in North Africa and Europe.
After
WW2, Australia has stayed friend with NATO members. Australia has been armed in
minimal level because Australia is located in a relatively peaceful region.
Threats of
Australia
Although Australia has
territorial disputes with Indonesia and Timor-Leste, the disputes can usually
be settled by agreements and communications. [3]
In fact, piracy and terrorism
imposed major security risk to Australia. Piracy is one of the common issues
for developed maritime states, therefore piracy is one of the major targets of
Australian arm forces. Australia is also under threats of terrorism because she
is the ally of the U.S.
Arm Forces of
Australia
Although
there is number of threats to Australia, Australia is a relatively safe country.
Therefore she is not heavily armed. Basically, Australia arms are NATO
standard, and usually their arms are not qualitatively nor quantitatively
superior. For example, Oliver Hazard Perry class frigate is a second class
warship in the USN, but its derivatives Adelaide class is forming the backbone
of Royal Australian Navy fleet.
[PIC 2]
The Future Weapons
of Australia
1) F-35A
Australia is the level 3 partner
in F-35 development programme, one of the most eyes-catching fighter jet
programme led by the US. Australia has invested 144 million USD and she will
purchase 72 F-35As in the future [4][5].
2) Canberra-class landing helicopter dock
Australia
has developed 27000 tons Canberra-class landing helicopter dock, the Royal
Australian Navy will have 2 ships in the coming years. 27000 tons is not very
big for this kind of ships, but this class is special. Canberra-class has
ski-jump ramp for STOVL jet fighters, although it can carry LCM-1E for landing
mission. In fact, Australia is considering purchasing F-35B for these ships [6].
[PIC 3]
Canberra-class
landing helicopter dock can carry at most 18 helicopters in the hangar, and 6
additional helicopters in the flight deck. Then, we can deduce that Canberra-class
landing helicopter dock could carry 24 F-35B if necessary. If Australia equips
her naval air fleet to maximum capacity, Australia could purchase up to 120
F-35 jet fighters in total.
Currently,
Australia rely on 95 F-18 jets to defence the sky, 71 of the F-18s are old A or
B variants. Australia will have a strong F-35 replacements for the air fleet
even if the old F-18s will retire before 2020. It is no doubt that the air
power of Australia is raising.
3) Submarines
Royal Australia
Navy is now working on SEA 1000, which is a project aiming at new blue ocean diesel
submarines. Australia is in touch with Japan for her Soryu class submarine.
Japan has planned to build 9 Soryu class submarines, and Australia is going to
build 12 new diesel submarines. I believe that Australia has a high chance to
work with Japan, because Japanese submarines is basically the only options for
blue ocean diesel submarines project.
Objectively
speaking, Australia and Japan have many incentives to work together. First, they
are major allies of the US. Second, they are fighting against the same
potential target. Third, they do not have major conflict of interest. Forth, they
are regional power in different area.
Japan-Australia
Relationship
It is
not difficult to see the possibility that Australia and Japan work together in
future military project. In SEA1000, Australia may purchase Soryu class. On the
other hand, Canberra-class landing helicopter dock can be a good reference for
the Japan to build F-35B operation ready ship. (It is not sure if 22DDH can
operate F-35B, because F-35B is very heavy and the flight deck have to be strongly
heat resistance for vertical take-off or landing.)
In the other point of view, why does
Australia try to work with Japan while Sino-Japan relationship is not good
recently? If Australia works with Japan in military industry, China will
certainly be unhappy. Australia may help Japan reducing military expenditure by
using the same product. It is a political stand, if Soryu class swims in
Australian water.
Australia and
Japan could replace some US present in the Asia Pacific
The
power of America is diminishing, and China is raising. The defence budget / GDP
ratio of the US has dropped to 4.2% (2012) from 4.7%. At the same time, Japan
(1%) and Australia (1.7%) can invest more for regional peace [7][8].
No
matter the PLA budget is true (Defence Budget / GDP Ratio: 2%) or not, China is
challenging the US and her allies in East and South China Sea. Although president
Obama said “Pivot to Asia”, it seems that the US is not doing a great job in
rebalancing Asia.
In the
future, it is almost a must for Japan and Australia to participate more in Asia
Pacific, unless China has been a close friend of NATO.
Took a
step back, if Australia is not planning to work more in Asia Pacific, why would
she purchase 2 big ships with aircraft carrier and amphibious function?
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