台灣將有望部署THAAD？

台灣將有望部署THAAD？

作者︰Dasein

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The Glocal: The Glocal        

(Picture – 1: THAAD)

據加拿大出版的<<漢和防務評論>>十月刊指出﹐美國國防公司Lockheed Martin正向台灣建議建立大氣層外反導系統。由此可見﹐美方推銷Lockheed Martin旗下THAAD的意味相當重﹐因為THAAD是少數有大氣層反導能力而且有外銷紀錄的武器。THAAD系統為美軍現役其中一款最優秀的防空系統﹐它不但具有防空功能﹐而且它還可以擔任反彈導飛彈的任務﹐為美國導彈防禦計劃當中重要的一環。本人就消息向Lockheed Martin公司確認﹐但沒有明確的回應。總括其他網上媒體的消息[1]﹐美國現在正積極向外推銷包括THAAD的新型軍備﹐而台灣亦名列美方目標之一﹐可見<<漢和>>的說法可信性甚高。

 

THAAD、PAC-3和F-16

            在台灣有意向美國購買的武器當中﹐直接參與區域防空/空優的武器就有PAC-3（愛國者3型）飛彈和F-16戰機。台灣向美國訂購的PAC-3彈體有部份應該已經裝備部隊﹐而PAC-3發射部件和雷達部份有望在2014至2015年間獲得[2]。可是﹐F-16的部份美方只對台軍現有的F-16A/B進行升級﹐台方等待了近七年的F-16C/D購買機會仍然未有出現。

            對於台灣軍購案的延遲﹐外界主流認為是中國的軟、硬實力增強所致。台灣面對相對不友好的解放軍實力不斷上升﹐唯有向美方相對不願出售的高階武力著手。另一方面﹐實力上升的中國內地則向美國加強施壓﹐希望延遲甚至推倒美國對台的售武計劃。

            相比起美國以往愈見冷淡的售武態度﹐現在美方竟然主動向台推薦先進的THAAD系統實在難得。美方推遲70年代飛機的銷售﹐卻努力推銷零八年的新型防空系統﹐我認為這奇怪的情況有以下原因︰

1 台軍叛變

            相比起可以輕易叛逃的戰機﹐美國對台灣出售地對空系統還是比較保險。地對空系統和空中傲翔的戰機不同﹐地上的系統怎樣跑一時三刻都難以逃離己方陣地﹐所以他們唯有背水一戰。

            以現在的台海關係來看﹐很難相信有戰機機師會在盛平時背義﹐畢竟中國內地都已經不再執行獎賞台灣叛員的制度。但由台灣募兵制的失敗來看﹐很難想像台灣軍方內部有如口號一樣精誠﹐這是文化和歸屬感的問題。事實上﹐募兵制的失敗和近來台軍間諜事件多少反映台軍的忠誠。由此可見﹐在戰時究竟有沒有機師為求瓦存而棄下同袍則不得而知。

 

2 美方的資訊利益

            由歷史來看﹐美國一向有以武器換取台灣分享情資的傾向。60年代至70年代美國中情局借予台灣政府先進的U-2偵察機﹐由台灣空軍派員進入內地空拍。現在美方有向台灣出售功率超群的Pave Paws鋪路爪長程預警雷達。台美軍事交易一向有互利為基本依歸﹐而美方一向樂意台灣成為美國的前哨﹐以中國內地的情資作為回報。

THAAD作為機動的陸基防空系統﹐它建有自己的機動雷達設施。據外界估計﹐THAAD可以偵測1000公里內的超高空目標並攻擊200公里內目標[3]。這已經代表中國內地由廣東至上海的高空情報盡被台、美掌握。而且﹐THAAD近200公里的攻擊範圍基本上提供了全台空防保障。

由此可見﹐台灣購入THAAD在基礎上加強了台、美同盟的關係。就算礙於中美三個聯合公報﹐台灣難以像日本和南韓一樣和美國親密交往﹐但THAAD和Pave Paws的互補偵測效果已經足以吸引美方維持台、美關係。而且﹐和U-2這樣的交易不同﹐台方這次最多只是金錢上付出而不用犧牲人命﹐即可換得近乎獨步全球的防空反導武力。

           

3 中方態度

            中國內地對台灣軍售的說法主要都是基於「一個中國」的原則建設﹐對內則以「民族大義」反對軍售。

時移世易﹐「毋忘在莒」已經成為一個歷史詞句﹐國統綱領亦已經不再存在。縱觀中、台實力之差﹐美國對台軍售最多只算是「軍力平衡」。我不評論對台軍售有多「不合民族大義」﹐但現實是美方的做法有助維持台海和平。

其實﹐中方實際在抗議的是美方令中國武力統一的障礙增加﹐而台灣軍力上升又可能令東海和南海問題格局變質﹐這些才是中國民族主義說辭後真正的意思。

相比起可以逃向日本或關島、又可以進攻內地的F-16戰機﹐THAAD系統明顯更傾向防禦。只要台方實力受限於島內﹐台灣就不可能插手南海、東海問題。這樣的情況有助中國和台灣問題和其他國際事務分離。

另一方面﹐THAAD只可能執行傳統防衛任務但F-16則不同。只要台灣只有限量的空中武力﹐就算台灣整體防空戰力良好﹐中共都可以以避戰達至控損的目的。而且﹐台灣在有限的空中戰力下﹐也不可能執行主動防禦等現代防衛策略。

由此可見﹐台灣投資在THAAD時其實對中共維持大陸的控制有利。雖然THAAD令中共對台進攻受更大威脅﹐但相反中共亦更可保障自己在中線外的安全。最後﹐THAAD的購入必然在預算上產生排擠效應﹐令戰機更新延後﹐這將限制了台灣空中戰術的多樣性。

 

4 台灣能力

            參考美國對台的軍售史﹐例如F-16﹐魚叉飛彈和AIM-120中程先進空對空飛彈﹐美方都傾向先讓台灣自己研究（有時候會由美國軍火商出手協助）﹐再在台灣接近成功研究的時候售賣同類先進武器。

            如果美方這次是以同一方針處理﹐那就意味由台灣自製、同樣有反導能力的天弓三型防空飛彈已經成軍並有一定戰力。雖然弓三研發成功早已不是新聞﹐但弓三獲得外界間接肯定則還是首次。

(Picture 2 – 天弓三型 )

台灣防空體系的問題

            台灣防空飛彈密度在全球是數一數二的高﹐但他們對飛彈的部署哲學卻令人不敢恭維。台灣的<<全球防衛雜誌>>就曾經用GOOGLE EARTH把台灣軍方的愛國者2+飛彈陣地找了出來﹐不禁令人懷疑台軍對抗內地攻擊的能力。

            其實﹐愛國者陣地的問題多少是因為軍方駐地不足所致。如果軍方考慮對抗中共的彈導飛彈攻擊﹐愛國者就只有20公里作戰半徑﹐而THAAD卻有200公里[4]。台灣軍方缺乏駐地已經是多年不爭的事實﹐軍方在城市就更難好好維持隱密的駐地。所以﹐台軍的問題多少是武器的先天限制。

            當引入THAAD後﹐台軍對駐地的彈性將大大增強﹐不單是攻擊力有所上升﹐THAAD的生存性也和PAC-3不可同日而語。

 

奇異的軍購潮

            據外媒的消息﹐近月美國政府對於外銷武器異常落力﹐而南韓亦傳出對SM-3防空飛彈甚有興趣。似乎在未來數年﹐遠東多國都會針對反導能力作針對性的提升。究竟這是為甚麼呢？

            以遠東的格局來看﹐引發軍購潮的人應該不是中國大陸或俄國﹐畢竟他們都擁有彈導技術多年﹐而且攻擊距離是洲際而不是區域性。所以﹐最令人在意的是北韓﹐北韓不但有企圖、有技術﹐而且他們向來都樂於展示自己的建軍方針。南韓找SM-3、美國賣THAAD給台灣﹐又有誰知道這是單純的商業行為﹐還是對北韓技術預視後的反應？

 

筆者的預測

            以台灣的情況來說﹐他們可以選擇的武器有THAAD、PAC-3和SM-3。

(Picture 3 – Options in the past)

先說SM-3﹐SM-3系統必然選配美國神盾艦﹐這是台灣海軍一直夢寐以求的戰艦系統。雖說美方在主推軍售﹐卻不見得美方在近期有賣台的意思。在買不到神盾艦的前提下﹐SM-3當然就只是空談。

            雷神公司的PAC-3的美方單價為二至三百萬美元 ﹐而Lockheed Martin的THAAD美方單價為一千二百萬美元。所以﹐PAC-3大約是THAAD六分一至四分一的價錢﹐但PAC-3的反導防禦面積亦比THAAD少很多（按半徑推算只有百分之一）﹐而且PAC系統比THAAD系統老近20年（以開始研究算起）。

            明顯地﹐THAAD對台灣而言有著相當大的吸引力﹐但它的力量也意味相當沉重的財政負擔。畢竟中方對台設有大量短程彈導飛彈（一般認為超過一千枚）﹐台灣在飽和攻擊下﹐如果按美方的做法「以二截一」﹐台方也要發射二千枚THAAD﹐這已經是二百台發射車的火力。所以就算台灣裝備再多的防衛設施﹐基本上都沒有完壁的希望。

            另外﹐如果台灣裝備如此大範圍的防空系統﹐台灣當局或許有必要照會日本當局﹐因為台灣將會把日本的空域也包含在THAAD的防空力量當中。這樣的情況在國際法和國際慣例上沒有問題﹐但卻多少影響台、日軍事互信。相反﹐只要台灣處理得宜﹐台灣就有本事把釣魚台直接納入自己陸基防空體系當中。這樣﹐台灣將有更多籌碼在日本和中國兩個地方巨頭間周旋。

(Picture 4 –日本空域)

            因此﹐台灣有可能會以測試為由向美國先購入少量THAAD﹐這樣就可以以小量付出獲得更多國際發言權﹐而且亦可以測試雷達精度及台、美情資交換的制度。所以﹐台灣未來防空也許會走向THAAD和PAC-3高低配。

Picture Source:

[Picture 1]:http://thesinosaudiblog.files.wordpress.com/2010/06/thaad.jpg

[Picture 2]:http://www.fyjs.cn/bbs/attachments/Mon_0910/254_88390_8f127d1a049ea35.jpg?241

[Picture 3]: Import or Die: Taiwan’s Stalled Force Modernization, Defence Industry Daily, Viewed 18^th Oct, 2013,  http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/taiwans-unstalled-force-modernization-04250/

[Picture 4]: http://big5.ifeng.com/gate/big5/res.news.ifeng.com/attachments/2010/05/27/rd_rs_5e537c20985a03e28ac1e2cee10aa9bb.jpg

 

Reference:

[1]: Brendan McGarry, DoD Buzz (Online Defence and Acquisition Journal), Pentagon Contracting Surged Before Shutdown, Viewed 18^th Oct, 2013, http://www.dodbuzz.com/2013/10/11/pentagon-contracting-surged-before-shutdown/

[2]: J. Michael Cole, Taiwan places US$921M order for PAC-3 missiles, Taipei Times, Viewed 18th Oct, 2013, http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2012/02/02/2003524483

[3]: AN/TPY-2: America’s Portable Missile Defence Radar, Viewed 18th Oct, 2013,

http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/antpy-2-ground-radar-07533/

[4]: THAAD Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence, United State of America, Viewed 18^th Oct, 2013, http://www.army-technology.com/projects/thaad/

 

 

Would Taiwan go for THAAD?

Would Taiwan go for THAAD?

Author: Dasein

Facebook Page: Page
The Glocal: The Glocal

           

(Picture – 1: THAAD)

            With reference to Kanwa Defence Review, a Canadian military magazine, Lockheed Martin has tried to persuade Taiwan developing exoatmospheric interceptor system. It seems that it was very likely for Lockheed Martin to promote their THAAD to Taiwan. THAAD is an outstanding air defence system, it is capable to undergo anti-aircraft mission and anti-ballistic missile mission. THAAD was sold to UAE recently, therefore it is possible for the US to looking other potential users. Although I have contacted Lockheed Martin to confirm this information, they did not give me a clear reply. However, there are number of internet sources said the US was seeking an opportunity to export military technology to number of countries, including Taiwan.

 

THAAD、PAC-3 and F-16

            Taiwan government is now looking for number of systems that can take parts in air defence, for example PAC-3 and F-16C/D. Republic of China (Taiwan) Army will receive their PAC-3 launcher in 2014 or 2015.[2] However, the US government has not yet approved the F-16C/D sales for 7 years.

            People generally believe mainland China has exerted pressure on the US in order to delay the military sales. Hence, Taiwan government were urgently looking for high end weapons, they wish to threat mainland China, which was more and more powerful, from invading Taiwan.

             Although the US has passively involved in military sales to Taiwan recently, the US is now trying to export THAAD to Taiwan. The action of the US may sound weird but I have some theories, my theories will suggest THAAD can be easily sold to Taiwan while F-16 cannot.

 

1 Risk of Defection

            Because of the nature of grounded weapons, THAAD is basically impossible to lose in defection. Taiwan pilots do not have a clean history for defecting to mainland China. Also, it is easy for us to doubt the general loyalty of Taiwanese forces, if we look into the fail of volunteer military recruitment in Taiwan and number of spy cases recently. We have no surprise for defection in the war if the loyalty of corps are low.

 

2 Information collection for the US

            For decades, the US were sharing good military systems with Taiwan if Taiwan could provide more information from mainland China. In 60s to 70s, Central Intelligence Agency of the US had generously shared their U-2 reconnaissance with ROCAF. Back to 2013, the US is sharing one of the most powerful radar, Pave Paws, with Taiwan. The information from mainland has always been the best return for the US.

            THAAD is portable surface-to-air missile (SAM) system, a unit of THAAD would have their own high-power radar to locating hostile planes and missiles. Although the accurate configuration of THAAD is classified, THAAD can detect high altitude target from 1000km and attack from 200km.  If THAAD is deployed in Taiwan, it means that the US and Taiwan will have a clear vision of China high altitude sky, from Guangdong to Shanghai.

            It is obvious that THAAD would further bond Taiwan and the US as allies.  The information acquired from Pave Paws and THAAD can be combine and complete each other. As a result, accurate 3D geographical information will be generated. Such radar information would be attractive enough to hold Taiwan and the US together. Unlike the U-2 deal, Taiwan would not risk any of their men, but they can acquire one of the best anti-ballistic missile system.

           

3 mainland China

            In diplomatic stage, mainland China has been fighting against the military sales to Taiwan. They claims that military sales to Taiwan is against “one China policy”, so they have been fighting for “Ethnical Justice”.

            Nowadays, it is hard to believe Taiwan government is still planning to strike back mainland. In fact, the Taiwan military sales has an important role in regional military rebalance. The rebalance of power between the Taiwan Strait (Formosa Strait) would help to hold the regional peace.

            In fact, Taiwan military sales would upset mainland China because this would deterring them from having military action against Taiwan.

            If Taiwan military power is secured in Taiwan, Taiwan would have less change to interfere international issues, such as the arguments in the East Sea and South Sea. The isolation of Taiwan’s influence would be important in China’s diplomatic plan.

On the other hand, THHAD can only conduct defensive mission, while F-16 can take an aggressive role. THAAD in Taiwan could be very useful in air-defence, but only fighter planes can help Taiwan undergo active defence strategy. THAAD can only threat mainland China if they walk into Taiwan’s front door, but F-16 can play differently. In other words, mainland China may want Taiwan to spend their budget for THAAD instead of F-16 because of the easiness of risk control.

 

4 Weapons Development of Taiwan

            In US-Taiwan military sales history, the US government would provide military research help for Taiwan military technology development. However, the US would sell similar products to Taiwan when Taiwan was close to research success. For example, F-16 sales, Harpoon sales and AIM-120 sales.

            If the US was working under the same philosophy, the sales of THAAD would be the sign of the success of their Sky Bow III SAM missile. Sky Bow III is a SAM and anti-ballistic missile newly developed by Taiwan. Although Sky Bow III has been developed for years, there was no external source can recognize its capability.  

 (Picture 2 – Sky Bow III )

 

Problem of Taiwan Air Defence System

            With reference to Defence International, Taiwanese Military Magazine, they have found their PAC-2+ deployment sites with google earth. They have doubted the survivability of the launching site.

            However, it was not totally the ROC Army’s fault. PAC-2+ had only 20km operational radius if they were deployed to intercept ballistic missile. It was no way for Taiwan Army to hide their launching site well in the city without affecting local citizens. If Taiwan imports THAAD from the US, location will no longer be a problem because the operational radius of THAAD is about 200km [4].

            It seems that THAAD is a good option for Taiwan, because THAAD has better survivability and operational range than PAC-2+ or PAC-3.

 

Military Sales in the Far East

            From internet medias, it seems that the US government was actively seeking military sales opportunities. At the same time, some news reviews that South Korea was looking for SM-3, which is a ship-based anti-ballistic missile. We may conclude that the nations in the Far East are trying to equip with anti-ballistic missile system.

            It is certain that mainland China and Russia did not trigger this trend, because they are all having ballistic missiles for years. Also, China and Russia are well equipped with intercontinental ballistic missiles, therefore they were not responsible for regional reactions. Actually, the number one suspect is North Korea, North Korea has been looking for ballistic missiles for years, and she has intention to use the missiles as well. If NK is now close to the success of ballistic missile research, this is no surprise that SK would seek for SM-3. Therefore, I believe that it will be a big topic for intelligence service, the agents from different countries will look for the rationales behind potential sales of SM-3 and THAAD.

 

My Prediction

            For the needs of Taiwan, they may look for weapons like THAAD, PAC-3 and SM-3.

(Picture 3 – Options in the past)

SM-3 should be installed with Aegis system. Taiwanese Navy has been looking for Aegis ship for years because of its outstanding air-defence capability. However, the US government has not agreed to sell Aegis system to Taiwan. Therefore, it is not possible for Taiwan to import SM-3 before having their Aegis ship.

            The unit price of PAC-3 is USD 2-3 million, and the unit price of THAAD is USD 12 million. Although the price of PAC-3 is one fifth of THAAD, however, THAAD can provide 100 times bigger ballistic missile defence zone. Also, PAC system is 20 years older than THAAD.

            It seems that THAAD is a very attractive defence option to Taiwan, but she may not consume many. It is not only because of financial reasons, but also a strategical reason. Mainland China is now aiming more than 1000 short-range ballistic missiles to Taiwan. If Taiwan want to play defensive role in traditional way, they have to deploy up to 2000 THAAD. Taiwan simply cannot afford 2000 THAAD, therefore Taiwan will not seek for absolute ballistic damage free.

            Moreover, if Taiwan deploy THAAD, they should also look for Japanese’s consensus because THAAD operation range will overlap with Japan’s Air. However, Taiwan can also put Senkaku Islands into her defensive zone. Taiwan can use THAAD to play a key role in Senkaku issue between Japan and mainland China.

 

(Picture 4 – Japan’s and Taiwan’s Territories)

            Hence, it is possible for Taiwan to import some THAAD. With the THAAD, Taiwan can take parts in some international issue, such as Senkaku issue. Also, Taiwan can share information of China’s air with the US in order to strengthen their relationship. Therefore, I believe Taiwan may come up with a High-low mix defence strategy, formed by PAC-3 and THAAD.

 

Picture Source:

[Picture 1]:http://thesinosaudiblog.files.wordpress.com/2010/06/thaad.jpg

[Picture 2]:http://www.fyjs.cn/bbs/attachments/Mon_0910/254_88390_8f127d1a049ea35.jpg?241

[Picture 3]: Import or Die: Taiwan’s Stalled Force Modernization, Defence Industry Daily, Viewed 18^th Oct, 2013,  http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/taiwans-unstalled-force-modernization-04250/

[Picture 4]: http://big5.ifeng.com/gate/big5/res.news.ifeng.com/attachments/2010/05/27/rd_rs_5e537c20985a03e28ac1e2cee10aa9bb.jpg

 

Reference:

[1]: Brendan McGarry, DoD Buzz (Online Defence and Acquisition Journal), Pentagon Contracting Surged Before Shutdown, Viewed 18^th Oct, 2013, http://www.dodbuzz.com/2013/10/11/pentagon-contracting-surged-before-shutdown/

[2]: J. Michael Cole, Taiwan places US$921M order for PAC-3 missiles, Taipei Times, Viewed 18th Oct, 2013, http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2012/02/02/2003524483

[3]: AN/TPY-2: America’s Portable Missile Defence Radar, Viewed 18th Oct, 2013,

http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/antpy-2-ground-radar-07533/

[4]: THAAD Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence, United State of America, Viewed 18^th Oct, 2013, http://www.army-technology.com/projects/thaad/