Would
Taiwan go for THAAD?
Author: Dasein
Facebook Page: PageThe Glocal: The Glocal
(Picture
– 1: THAAD)
With reference to Kanwa Defence
Review, a Canadian military magazine, Lockheed Martin has tried to persuade
Taiwan developing exoatmospheric interceptor system. It seems that it was very
likely for Lockheed Martin to promote their THAAD to Taiwan. THAAD is an
outstanding air defence system, it is capable to undergo anti-aircraft mission
and anti-ballistic missile mission. THAAD was sold to UAE recently, therefore
it is possible for the US to looking other potential users. Although I have
contacted Lockheed Martin to confirm this information, they did not give me a
clear reply. However, there are number of internet sources said the US was
seeking an opportunity to export military technology to number of countries,
including Taiwan.
THAAD、PAC-3
and F-16
Taiwan government is now looking for
number of systems that can take parts in air defence, for example PAC-3 and
F-16C/D. Republic of China (Taiwan) Army will receive their PAC-3 launcher in
2014 or 2015.[2] However, the US government has not yet approved the F-16C/D
sales for 7 years.
People generally believe mainland
China has exerted pressure on the US in order to delay the military sales. Hence,
Taiwan government were urgently looking for high end weapons, they wish to threat
mainland China, which was more and more powerful, from invading Taiwan.
Although the US has passively involved in
military sales to Taiwan recently, the US is now trying to export THAAD to
Taiwan. The action of the US may sound weird but I have some theories, my
theories will suggest THAAD can be easily sold to Taiwan while F-16 cannot.
1 Risk
of Defection
Because of the nature of grounded
weapons, THAAD is basically impossible to lose in defection. Taiwan pilots do
not have a clean history for defecting to mainland China. Also, it is easy for
us to doubt the general loyalty of Taiwanese forces, if we look into the fail
of volunteer military recruitment in Taiwan and number of spy cases recently.
We have no surprise for defection in the war if the loyalty of corps are low.
2 Information
collection for the US
For decades, the US were sharing
good military systems with Taiwan if Taiwan could provide more information from
mainland China. In 60s to 70s, Central Intelligence Agency of the US had
generously shared their U-2 reconnaissance with ROCAF. Back to 2013, the US is
sharing one of the most powerful radar, Pave Paws, with Taiwan. The information
from mainland has always been the best return for the US.
THAAD is portable surface-to-air
missile (SAM) system, a unit of THAAD would have their own high-power radar to
locating hostile planes and missiles. Although the accurate configuration of
THAAD is classified, THAAD can detect high altitude target from 1000km and attack
from 200km. If THAAD is deployed in
Taiwan, it means that the US and Taiwan will have a clear vision of China high
altitude sky, from Guangdong to Shanghai.
It is obvious that THAAD would further
bond Taiwan and the US as allies. The
information acquired from Pave Paws and THAAD can be combine and complete each
other. As a result, accurate 3D geographical information will be generated. Such
radar information would be attractive enough to hold Taiwan and the US
together. Unlike the U-2 deal, Taiwan would not risk any of their men, but they
can acquire one of the best anti-ballistic missile system.
3 mainland
China
In diplomatic stage, mainland China
has been fighting against the military sales to Taiwan. They claims that
military sales to Taiwan is against “one China policy”, so they have been fighting
for “Ethnical Justice”.
Nowadays, it is hard to believe
Taiwan government is still planning to strike back mainland. In fact, the
Taiwan military sales has an important role in regional military rebalance. The
rebalance of power between the Taiwan Strait (Formosa Strait) would help to hold
the regional peace.
In fact, Taiwan military sales would
upset mainland China because this would deterring them from having military
action against Taiwan.
If Taiwan military power is secured
in Taiwan, Taiwan would have less change to interfere international issues,
such as the arguments in the East Sea and South Sea. The isolation of Taiwan’s influence
would be important in China’s diplomatic plan.
On the
other hand, THHAD can only conduct defensive mission, while F-16 can take an
aggressive role. THAAD in Taiwan could be very useful in air-defence, but only
fighter planes can help Taiwan undergo active defence strategy. THAAD can only
threat mainland China if they walk into Taiwan’s front door, but F-16 can play
differently. In other words, mainland China may want Taiwan to spend their
budget for THAAD instead of F-16 because of the easiness of risk control.
4 Weapons
Development of Taiwan
In US-Taiwan military sales history,
the US government would provide military research help for Taiwan military technology
development. However, the US would sell similar products to Taiwan when Taiwan
was close to research success. For example, F-16 sales, Harpoon sales and
AIM-120 sales.
If the US was working under the same
philosophy, the sales of THAAD would be the sign of the success of their Sky
Bow III SAM missile. Sky Bow III is a SAM and anti-ballistic missile newly
developed by Taiwan. Although Sky Bow III has been developed for years, there was
no external source can recognize its capability.
(Picture 2 – Sky Bow III )
Problem of Taiwan Air Defence System
With reference to Defence
International, Taiwanese Military Magazine, they have found their PAC-2+ deployment
sites with google earth. They have doubted the survivability of the launching
site.
However, it was not totally the ROC
Army’s fault. PAC-2+ had only 20km operational radius if they were deployed to
intercept ballistic missile. It was no way for Taiwan Army to hide their
launching site well in the city without affecting local citizens. If Taiwan
imports THAAD from the US, location will no longer be a problem because the
operational radius of THAAD is about 200km [4].
It seems that THAAD is a good option
for Taiwan, because THAAD has better survivability and operational range than
PAC-2+ or PAC-3.
Military Sales in the Far East
From internet medias, it seems that
the US government was actively seeking military sales opportunities. At the
same time, some news reviews that South Korea was looking for SM-3, which is a
ship-based anti-ballistic missile. We may conclude that the nations in the Far East
are trying to equip with anti-ballistic missile system.
It is certain that mainland China
and Russia did not trigger this trend, because they are all having ballistic
missiles for years. Also, China and Russia are well equipped with
intercontinental ballistic missiles, therefore they were not responsible for
regional reactions. Actually, the number one suspect is North Korea, North
Korea has been looking for ballistic missiles for years, and she has intention
to use the missiles as well. If NK is now close to the success of ballistic
missile research, this is no surprise that SK would seek for SM-3. Therefore, I
believe that it will be a big topic for intelligence service, the agents from
different countries will look for the rationales behind potential sales of SM-3
and THAAD.
My Prediction
For the needs of Taiwan, they may
look for weapons like THAAD, PAC-3 and SM-3.
(Picture
3 – Options in the past)
SM-3
should be installed with Aegis system. Taiwanese Navy has been looking for
Aegis ship for years because of its outstanding air-defence capability. However,
the US government has not agreed to sell Aegis system to Taiwan. Therefore, it
is not possible for Taiwan to import SM-3 before having their Aegis ship.
The unit price of PAC-3 is USD 2-3
million, and the unit price of THAAD is USD 12 million. Although the price of PAC-3
is one fifth of THAAD, however, THAAD can provide 100 times bigger ballistic
missile defence zone. Also, PAC system is 20 years older than THAAD.
It seems that THAAD is a very
attractive defence option to Taiwan, but she may not consume many. It is not
only because of financial reasons, but also a strategical reason. Mainland
China is now aiming more than 1000 short-range ballistic missiles to Taiwan. If
Taiwan want to play defensive role in traditional way, they have to deploy up
to 2000 THAAD. Taiwan simply cannot afford 2000 THAAD, therefore Taiwan will
not seek for absolute ballistic damage free.
Moreover, if Taiwan deploy THAAD,
they should also look for Japanese’s consensus because THAAD operation range
will overlap with Japan’s Air. However, Taiwan can also put Senkaku Islands
into her defensive zone. Taiwan can use THAAD to play a key role in Senkaku
issue between Japan and mainland China.
(Picture
4 – Japan’s and Taiwan’s Territories)
Hence, it is possible for Taiwan to
import some THAAD. With the THAAD, Taiwan can take parts in some international
issue, such as Senkaku issue. Also, Taiwan can share information of China’s air
with the US in order to strengthen their relationship. Therefore, I believe
Taiwan may come up with a High-low mix defence strategy, formed by PAC-3 and
THAAD.
Picture
Source:
[Picture
3]: Import or Die: Taiwan’s Stalled Force
Modernization, Defence Industry Daily, Viewed 18th Oct,
2013, http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/taiwans-unstalled-force-modernization-04250/
[Picture
4]: http://big5.ifeng.com/gate/big5/res.news.ifeng.com/attachments/2010/05/27/rd_rs_5e537c20985a03e28ac1e2cee10aa9bb.jpg
Reference:
[1]:
Brendan McGarry, DoD Buzz (Online Defence and Acquisition Journal), Pentagon Contracting Surged Before Shutdown,
Viewed 18th Oct, 2013, http://www.dodbuzz.com/2013/10/11/pentagon-contracting-surged-before-shutdown/
[2]: J.
Michael Cole, Taiwan places US$921M order
for PAC-3 missiles, Taipei Times, Viewed 18th Oct, 2013, http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2012/02/02/2003524483
[3]:
AN/TPY-2: America’s Portable Missile Defence Radar, Viewed 18th Oct, 2013,
[4]: THAAD Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence,
United State of America, Viewed 18th Oct, 2013, http://www.army-technology.com/projects/thaad/
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