The New Era of Military Aviation History, the successful test flight of
QF-16
Author: Dasein
The trend of using UAV
Nowadays, having
safety and stability are the first priority in the system management, we are
trying to eliminate human errors by introducing computer system in any working
and decision making process. As a result, we have enhanced our working
efficiency and effectiveness. Back to the WWII, Nazi Germany has introduced remote
mine vehicles, named Leichter Ladungsträger Goliath, in the
front line. Today, unmanned air vehicles (UAV) are working worldwide for
different missions, included surveillance, reconnaissance and direct combat.
Some military researches believe that F-35 will be the last manned fighter
plane in the USAF history. It seems that UAV technology is going to play the
most important role in modern warfare.
On
19th Sep, 2013, USAF and Boeing have successfully conducted a test
flight for QF-16. [1][2]QF-16 is internally modified retired F-16 of USAF. The
82nd Aerial Targets Squadron Commander Lt. Col. Ryan Inman said, “Now we have a mission capable, highly sustainable full scale
aerial target to take us into the future.” Also, USAF
said they will have QF-16 weapons test and other training in the coming future.
（Picture 1）
（Picture 2）
QF-16
The USAF has been
using UAV for years. Therefore, unmanned technology is no longer a news for the
world. However, I believe that the success of QF-16 is a major breakthrough of
human aviation history.
QF-16 is going to be the
best multi-tasking UAV fighter plane of the US. QF-16 can not only conduct
traditional UAV mission but also air supremacy mission. For the UAV using in
the USAF, they are usually less maneuverable. Hence, they are assigned to
conduction air to ground mission instead of taking dog fights with other
fighter planes. Although some of the UAVs (such as MQ-9) may have air-to-air
missiles (such as AIM-9, AIM-92), they are less like to survive in air
supremacy mission because of its low thrust to weight ratio. In the reality, I
would say UAV may not be able to defense themselves from air hunters. However,
F-16 was designed for air combat missions, therefore QF-16 has potential to
take part in air supremacy or air support missions. Please note that USAF is
having a huge number of F-16 on hand, it is likely for QF-16 to be the first
mass production multi-task UAV of the US.
I have sent an E-mail
to Boeing for asking question about QF-16, Mr. Paul Cejas, the Chief Engineer of
the QF-16 project, replied that the tested QF-16 is modified from F-16A, and
they have alreay modified 4 F-16Cs and 2 F-16As. The configurations were mostly
done inside the plane but an actuated throttle and few switches have been
installed inside the cockpit. Also, they stated that it is possible to convert F-16
to QF-16 in 3 to 4 months if QF-16 project is in mass production. However,
QF-16 can fire missile only in manned configuration, QF-16 cannot be guided by
Link-16 at this moment. From the conversation between me and Boeing, we may
also conclude that they can turn QF-16 back to manned configuration within two
weeks. (Not sure if “Manned configuration” means manned QF-16 or normal F-16).
In the coming future,
I predict that Boeing will conduct missile firing tests in unmanned
configuration. Also, they will try to link up QF-16 with military tactical data
exchange network because the USAF has to ensure they are having 2 medias to
connect with QF-16 (Satellite + Ground / Link 16).
For the reason that
using F-16 but not F-14 nor F-18, I believe that it is mainly because of the
maintenance cost and the number of planes. Boeing has produced more than 4500
F-16s worldwide, the huge amount of F-16s gives Boeing a huge business opportunity.
Besides, most of the F-16s in the world are going to retired, this obviously
makes QF-16 configuration more attractive for buyers. However, I guess that the
US will seek for UAV version of F/A-18 also, because QF-16 cannot operate in
aircraft carriers without further structural strengthening but F/A-18 can.
The merits of multi-task
UAV
Low personnel injury risk:
It is impossible to
cost or injury a pilot in UAV mission because there is no pilot in the sky.
Without considering injury risk, commander may have more flexibility to accomplish
his mission. Besides, search and rescue team will not need to risk their lifes
for helping pilots behind the enemy line. Hence, using UAV will save more the
10 soldiers from entering the battle zone.
Better pilot condition:
UAV pilot will always
haves better condition than normal pilot. First, UAV pilot can make a shift with
other UAV pilot while normal pilot in fighter plane cannot. Also, UAV pilot can
eat, drink and nap normally in the rest. Besides, it is less likely for UAV
pilot to make error under stress because they are not risking their life in the
mission.
Moreover, it is possible
for UAV pilot to manage number of UAV at the same time. UAV pilot can let the
computer fly in “bored time” and take control when UAV is in a fight. That
means the number of UAV pilots is less than normal pilots for the same number
of aircrafts. Eventually, UAV pilots can receive better salary and training for
constant level of resource.
However, normal manned
aircraft pilot has some very unique advantages. Normal pilot will have a larger
vision angle than UAV pilots. Also, normal pilot can fly by senses other than
vision (i.e. gravity) while UAV pilot cannot.
To sum up, I believe
that UAV pilots are generally having more advantages than normal pilots. And,
UAV pilots are more likely in better condition.
（Picture 3, Murphy's Law told us mistake happens）
High G-force maneuverability:
G-force means number
of times of gravitational force receiving by the pilot. If a fighter plane can
perform motion in high G-force, it is more likely to have better maneuverability.
However, pilot cannot withstand high G-force for a long time, otherwise they
will faint. For a well-trained pilot with pressure suit, he can stand 10G
motion at most. In a fighter UAV, it is theoretically possible undergo more
than 10 G motion because there is no pilot inside. Hence, the maneuverability
of fighter UAV could be better than normal fighter plane.
The USAF is very
likely to conduct a high G test in QF-16. If Boeing can make the test though, QF-16
will be the best dog fight fighter in the USAF. Obviously, QF-16’s value will
jump up significantly if it can fly under 10G or more.
Low cost:
In general, UAV would
have a less powerful engine, less safety standard relatively because there is
no pilot on board. This will directly lead to a lower cost of production.
If UAV will responsible
for air supremacy mission in the future, the production cost will go up a bit
in order to serve a new role in the field. However, without considering human
life, UAV cost can directly link with its marginal benefit. Therefore, UAV will
have a better performance for the same budget.
Distraction Team:
In
the contemporary air combat situation, distraction team would be used in order
to eliminate hostile fighter planes. In this tactic, a small distraction team would
fly in high altitude in order to gain energy advantage and alert hostile
planes. Then, the main assault team will try to bypass the hostile planes in
low altitude without their notice. Afterwards, main assault team will use all
the house power to make an u-turn, gain speed and height, and aim hostile
planes from their behind. In theory, a small distraction team is always a
better option, because smaller distraction teams means bigger main assault team
and limited potential loss. However, a smaller distraction will be easier to be
eliminated. If a small distraction is formed by manned fighter planes, we are
likely to sacrifice our teammates.
Therefore,
UAV fighter planes are the best option for forming distraction team, because we
do not have to risk any pilots’ life in particular.
New possible tactics: Suicide Mission
It is possible for
some countries to conduct suicide mission with UAV because there is no pilot
and low production cost. Suicide mission can extend the operational range and
give unexpected assault to enemy.
If we combine suicide
mission with special operation, it is possible for the UAV to destroy enemy’s
defensive construction and give air support to the special force.
However, UAV suicide
mission will only be conducted by countries without cruise missile, because
cruise missile is a lot cheaper than a fighter UAV (about 2% of F-16 cost).
（Picture 4, Leichter Ladungsträger Goliath）
（Picture 5, Zero Kamikaze Fighter Planes）
New possible tactics: Oil refilling in untraditional situation
If we plant the
concept of QF-16 to other fighter plane, like F/A-18, it seems that the air
force and navy can provide oil refilling in untraditional situation, like low
altitude fight behind the enemy line. It is because F/A-18 can provide oil
refilling service with special device.
In the low altitude penetration
mission, the effective range of fighter planes will be much lower than normal high
altitude mission because of different air density. However, oil refilling
service cannot be provided by big oil refilling planes, like KC-130. In the
missions of this kind, oil refilling device of F/A-18 can extend the low
altitude effective range because we can actually send an F/A18 oil refilling
plane into the enemy air space with the team.
However, F/A-18 will
have much less maneuverability when it brings along with oil refilling devices.
Just like the small distraction mentioned before, it is no good to use manned
F/A-18 to provide oil-refilling service but UAV fighter planes because of personnel
injury risk. Also, this special unmanned F/A-18 can be sacrificed to protect the manned F/A-18 if the task force is under attack.
New possible tactics: Stealthiness Oriented Fighter Planes
In fighter planes design,
one research is focusing on stealthiness while another is focusing on maneuverability.
However, it is rare that one design would completely pursue stealthiness or maneuverability.
Some expert believe that, stealthiness is not useful because the air-to-air
missile will expose stealth plane’s position right after its attack. Therefore,
any manned fighter plane would seek for better maneuverability because stealthiness
can only bring a time limited advantages to a plane.
However, stealth UAV
could be a new story. It is possible for an UAV to give up maneuverability in
order to control its production cost. Stealth UAV will be a single-shot
fighter, they fire and run. The fired missile will be guided by airborne
earning warning (AEW) plane via link-16. The stealth UAV will only have
low-power radar, cost-effective engine, and optical system. Therefore, this “low
end” UAV can be relatively cheap. If the air force finds this UAV has higher
marginal benefit/cost ratio, then low-end stealth UAV will be a rational and
possible option.
Trend
Change of Air Supremacy Theory: from energy-maneuverability theory to cost-benefit theory
Fifty years before, Fighter Mafia used energy-maneuverability theory to convince the world producing high
thrust to weight ratio fighter planes. In order to have higher thrust to weight
ratio, efficient and expensive engines have to be used. Today, the newly
developed Stealthiness Theory cannot completely dominate military aviation
theory from energy-maneuverability theory.
In the future, I predict
that fighter plane will become a platform. Once UAV can be produced cheaply, UAV
will be a pure missile firing device in an air combat situation. The core of
air combat system will be AEW, missile and Link-16 instead of fighter planes or
UAV. In fact, ECM and decoy are the most powerful air-defending system, the
vagarious motion is the last and least counter measure only.
Nowadays, the developments
of missile, ECM, ECCM and information exchange network are more important than plane
development. No matter how maneuverable the plane is, missile is always better.
No matter how Stealth the plane is, missile has less radar-reflecting area.
They are all the living prove for cost-benefit theory, fighter plane is a
missile platform only.
Of course, cost-benefit
theory is only particle for technology superpower. In number of modern
conflict, we can conclude that only one side will dominate the battle field
with electronic measure. The other side will not be able to communicate or
control UAV. Therefore, only one side can send UAV, it means that main air
battle between UAVs is impossible.
Therefore, traditional
air supremacy theories are still useful for middle or small countries. They are
going to seek for manned fighter plane as usual.
UAV and international relationship:
In
2011, Iran interfered a US UAV (RQ-170), and made it leaded on Iran soil. At
the end, the US did not give any solid responses but blamed Iran only. Iran has
paid nothing but gained the US high-tech UAV sample. Iran claimed that they
have successfully decoded the on board computer of the UAV.
There
is number of reasons for not giving Iran a military response, however, the most
crucial reason was there were no casualties. If the US tried to give military
response, US soldiers could die in the action. Also, killing for a no-death
incident could be an ethics disaster for the US government
In the future, more and more UAV will operate worldwide. This trend
will make the risk of air combat lower than before. Air forces will
have no fear to start an UAV fight because they will pay no blood but money. On
the other hand, the defensive force will not fear to shoot down the invading UAV
because only death will make international relation worst but not unmanned
planes. Hence, more countries will use UAV to bring military aggression.
Eventually, an air combat may only mean losing money, it may carry political
meaning rather than actually military meaning.
Semi-UAV:
No
matter how useful the UAVs are, every country will reserve some manned fighter
plane as a backup system. For super power like the US, the manned air power
should be large enough for defending her homeland.
For some countries, they will consider semi-UAV in order to gain the
advantages of using UAV and have a backup system in one budget. Semi-UAV will
have two configurations, manned configuration and unmanned configuration,
therefore semi-UAV can be flown by computer or on board pilot. However, semi-UAV
will be more expensive than manned fighter plane, because semi-UAV should be as
safes as traditional fighter planes in order to grantee to safe of the pilot.
QF-16 has a
potential to be the first mass production semi-UAV. Interested countries can
simply pay a bit more for modifying their F-16s, then they can gain the
advantages of owning UAV. I am sure it is a good plan for budge limited air
forces.
Reduction of F-35 Production:
If
QF-16 is developed successfully, the production quantity of F-35 will be
reduced. It is obvious that QF-16 has competitive advantages, and F-35 is a
rather expensive new aircraft. It is very attractive to “recycle” the nearly
retired F-16 to QF-16 with little budget instead of paying a hung amount for little
quantity of expensive F-35s. F-35 is a good option, but F-35 cannot do
everything QF-16 can do.
Also,
F-35 is built by Lockheed Martin, Boeing has a very good reason to compete with
Lockheed for this big cake. However, we may notice that the US government may not
want an intensive competition between F-35 and QF-16, because the US government
has to pay more for F-35 development if less F-35’s sales reduce. Besides, there
are 10 countries involved in F-35 development, those countries will not stay out
from buying F-35. Besides, I am sure conventional manned F-35 will be favorable
to conventional organization, likes Air Force. I predict that the reduction of
F-35 production will be minor.
Effect of F-16 production:
If
QF-16 has expended its international market, the parts of QF-16/F-16 will have
a large demand. The demand of F-16 parts will extend the life of F-16 production
line. At that time, QF-16 could be the world’s first successful semi-UAV
because purchasing QF-16 is one of the cheapest options to introduce and
compile new concept into air force.
Summary:
Stealth fighter plane,
high maneuverability fighter plane and UAV have been the most popular
directions for plane development. Nowadays, the US has dominated it stealth
technology and UAV technology, therefore the USAF will remain the most power
air force at least for 10 more years.
In
Taiwan, they are still thinking for if they should purchase old F-16 C/D or
F-35. I believe QF-16 will make their decision process more complicated.
Postscript:
I am so happy
that I can have a very timely reply from Boeing. Before I tried to contact
Boeing, I did expect that I could not have any reply or clear answer. However,
I have received Ms Shelhamer’s (Staff of Boeing) reply few hours later. Mr.
Paul Cejas, the Chief Engineer of QF-16 project, has contacted me after 7 hours
with direct answers for all questions asked.
For the similar
case, I have tried to contact one Taiwanese aerospace company. And, I have
received no words from their company. It seems that Boeing does concern more about
public relationship than that Taiwanese company. I can understand that Taiwan
aviation industry heavily depends on Taiwan government’s policy. However, I
believe Taiwan government would have more intention and incentive to purchase
from domestic company if Taiwanese can understand more about their domestic
aviation products. Hence, I believe the improvement of public relationship
management is important for Taiwanese aviation industry because articles about
their products are beneficial for them.
Acknowledgements:
１．Mr. Paul Cejas, QF-16
Chief Engineer, Boeing
２．Ms. Michelle Shelhamer,
Global Service and Support Department, Boeing
Picture Source:
[Picture 1,2]: Boeing
QF-16 Aerial Target Completes 1st Pilotless Flight ,Boeing, Viewed 25th
Sep, 2013, http://boeing.mediaroom.com/Boeing-QF-16-Aerial-Target-Completes-1st-Pilotless-Flight
[Picture 3]: History of Murphy, Viewed, 25th
Sep, 2013, http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1d/Book_cover_of_%22A_History_of_Murphy%27s_Law%22.jpg
[Picture 4]: Leichter Ladungsträger Goliath, Viewed 25th Sep, 2013,
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/cb/Bundesarchiv_Bild_146-1980-053-53%2C_Sprengpanzer_%22Goliath%22.jpg
[Picture 5]: Kamikaze, Viewed 25th
Sep, 2013, http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/25/A6M5_52c_Kyushu.jpg
Reference:
[1]: F-16 Drone: Fighter Jet Flies Without Pilot Sky News ,Viewed 25th
Sep, 2013 ,http://news.sky.com/story/1146072/f-16-drone-fighter-jet-flies-without-pilot
[2]:
Boeing QF-16 Aerial Target
Completes 1st Pilotless Flight ,Boeing, Viewed 25th Sep, 2013, http://boeing.mediaroom.com/Boeing-QF-16-Aerial-Target-Completes-1st-Pilotless-Flight
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